We warned of the consequences of COVID closures. We were right.

I am pretty used to having my name run through the mud. So, when COVID arrived, we knew the consequences of speaking out against school closures. That is just a consequence of speaking against a leadership culture which, in my humble opinion, was out of touch with Kingsport.

Here is the kicker. We knew we were right, because we had researched the issue carefully. We had tracked hotspots, and rarely did they track back to schools. In fact, most of the COVID hotspots came from vacationers. Many in ASC and three BOE members said it couldn’t be done. They consistently moved the goalposts when it was time to reopen.

We had two huge concerns. First, we warned that academic issues would most certainly arise in at-risk populations. Secondly, we warned of mental health issues which would sky rocket. Well, the data is now pouring in and the results are sadly unsurprising. Our BOE at the time and many members of ASC(many still work in their same positions or have been promoted) were flatly wrong.

Why write this now? Well, it is election time. Our name is again being run through the mud. But maybe remember the last time that we warned the BOE and ASC that there were problems. We were right then, and we are right now.

Here are just a few snippets of data regarding school closure consequences on young people. ….

This study found that attending school remotely during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with disproportionate mental health consequences for older and Black and Hispanic children as well as children from families with lower income. In the context of complex school reopening decisions that balance competing risks and benefits, these findings suggest that allocating funding to support safe in-person instruction may reduce mental health inequities associated with race/ethnicity and income. Critically, as children return to in-person instruction, mental health inequities may not resolve on their own. Ensuring that all students have access to additional educational and mental health resources must be an important public health priority, met with appropriate funding and work force augmentation, during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. ~ The Association Between School Closures and Child Mental Health During COVID-19 by Hawrilenko, Kroshus, and Tandon (JAMA, September 2021)

School reopening was associated with a 1.2%-point drop in monthly prevalence of mental health diagnoses [95% confidence interval (CI) = −1.59, −0.74], and a 10.6% (95% CI = −13.4%, −7.8%) drop in related healthcare spending. The mental health conditions that saw the largest differential between in-person and remote school districts were anxiety and depression. Effects were strongest among girls. ~ Effect of School Reopenings on Children’s Mental Health During COVID-19: Quasi-experimental Evidence from California by Ozluk, Romine, Sylwestrzak, and Hamad (Epidemiology, March 2026)

Overall, mental health diagnoses fell(due to schools reopening) roughly 43% relative to the baseline. The largest improvements were in depression and anxiety diagnosis, which had risen during the pandemic. ~ New study reveals effects of COVID school closures on students’ mental health, Ozluk (NPR Interview, December 2025)

The next time we have a public health emergency of this scale, then there needs to be, hopefully, a lot more discussion informed by evidence like this about what decisions we should be making to ensure we’re paying attention to children. ~New study reveals effects of COVID school closures on students’ mental health, Hamad (NPR Interview, December 2025)

As of last spring, students were still roughly half a year behind where their predecessors were in 2019. There has been some recovery, but not as fast as we would like. An important part of this story is that the impacts of COVID-19 have been extremely uneven—learning loss has been exacerbated by class, racial, and ethnic inequalities. Lower-income students today are further behind upper-income students than they were five years ago. ~ Education Experts Break Down the Lingering Impacts and Unexpected Outcomes of COVID-19 Pandemic, Michael Kurlaender, (UC-Davis Office of Research, July 2025)

An early warning signal that students are disengaging with our education system, especially in the elementary years, is chronic absenteeism—which is defined as missing 10% or more of the school year. From 2021 and 2022, there was a large increase in chronic absenteeism among California students, tripling to 30% of missed days. Since 2022, there has been a downward trend of 10%, but chronic absenteeism is still sitting at 20%: more than double what it was before COVID-19. ~ Education Experts Break Down the Lingering Impacts and Unexpected Outcomes of COVID-19 Pandemic, Kevin Gee (UC-Davis Office of Research, July 2025)

(This was written on March 3rd)